Press Releases › Campaign update and poll results
Memo
To: News Media
Fm: Bill George, McClintock for Congress Communications Director
916-446-1245
Re: Campaign update and poll results
Here is the latest “inside baseball” from the McClintock Campaign as we head into the last few days.
Our fundraising continues to amaze. In the last ten days some 3200 supporters have contributed $320,000 (an average of $100 each) to the campaign, with no signs of abating. We are conducting a robust, strategic voter contact program with a segmented media mix that will carry us through election day. Voters are responding enthusiastically to Tom’s message of lower taxes and fiscal responsibility. Throughout the race we have scaled our marketing mix as political, economic and other external events developed. As a result our share of market and share of mind surveys confirm we have maximized our time and resources to reach voters at optimum episodes during the campaign.
A telephone survey of high-propensity registered voters within the 4th Congressional District was conducted between the dates of Oct 21 and Oct 22, 2008. The sample size of 400 yields a sampling error of less than +/- 5.6%. The poll was conducted by Val R. Smith, Ph.D.
On the ballot question McClintock led by a margin of 49% to 40%.
As we have seen in the past, both candidates had very high soft name identification. The McClintock favorable-to-unfavorable ratio was slightly better than 1:1 with 42% favorable impression and a 37% unfavorable impression. Charlie Brown was marginally upside down with 39% unfavorable and 38% favorable.
Importantly, voter attributions of the two candidates remain accurate going into election day. Tom McClintock is viewed as a conservative by 74% of the voters, opposing tax increases by 60% of the voters, and solid on economic issues by 52% of the voters. Charlie Brown is viewed as liberal by 63% of the voters. On Charlie Brown’s main campaign issue of supporting veterans, Brown scores an attribution of 58%, and Tom McClintock trails by only 6 points at 52%.
A “Daily Kos” poll claims ballot advantage for Brown. We have previously provided you with a list of serious methodological shortcomings that damage the credibility of the Daily Kos poll.
