Press Releases › McClintock Opens Significant Lead in 4th Congressional District Race
Likely voters gave Republican Tom McClintock an eight point advantage over Democrat Charlie Brown in the race for the congressional seat in the 4th Congressional District. The poll was conducted by veteran pollster Val Smith, Ph.D. A telephone survey of high-propensity registered voters within the 4th Congressional District was conducted between the dates of Sept 22 and Sept 24, 2008. The sample size of 400 yields a sampling error of less than +/- 5.0%.
McClintock’s lead rose to a 53% to 39% margin when respondents were read campaign messages from both Brown and McClintock.
McClintock has strong support among Republicans with a 72% vote share.
Among independent voters, McClintock captured 37% of the vote compared to Brown’s 48%. If McClintock can keep the independent differential near the eleven points found in this poll McClintock will handily win the election.
Charlie Brown’s trying to sell himself as a conservative has been a definitive failure. On the attribution of “conservative” McClintock leads 66% to 9%. On the attribution of “liberal” respondents identified Brown by a margin of 60% to 7%. Regarding the attribution of “winning the war in Iraq” Tom leads 58% to 29%. And on the anti-tax attribution McClintock leads 56% to 18%.
“Voters are focusing on the issues that matter to them and discovering that Charlie Brown lines up with liberal Democrats on issues that are important to voters,” said McClintock for Congress Campaign Strategist John Feliz. “In uncertain economic times voters look for experienced leadership. McClintock is known and respected for his expertise in complex budget issues and understands how to solve problems without resorting to tax increases and massive government bailouts.”
McClintock was recruited by district residents to run for the seat. His conservative values and record of fiscal responsibility match up with the District’s conservative base.
The Republican voter registration advantage is 16 points. Ideologically, the district self-identifies itself as conservative by a 2:1 ratio (60% conservative and 29% liberal). Party loyalty favors Republicans by a difference of 45% to 24%, with a switch vote percentage of 31.
“This poll confirms that our message is being clearly understood by voters,” Feliz said. “This is in stark contrast to other polls that were methodologically questionable. We look forward to debating our opponent and outlining the stark differences between the candidates on the issues.”
