Likely voters gave Republican Tom McClintock an eight point advantage over Democrat Charlie Brown in the race for the congressional seat in the 4th Congressional District. The poll was conducted by veteran pollster Val Smith, Ph.D. A telephone survey of high-propensity registered voters within the 4th Congressional District was conducted between the dates of Sept 22 and Sept 24, 2008. The sample size of 400 yields a sampling error of less than +/- 5.0%.
McClintock’s lead rose to a 53% to 39% margin when respondents were read campaign messages from both Brown and McClintock.
McClintock has strong support among Republicans with a 72% vote share.
Among independent voters, McClintock captured 37% of the vote compared to Brown’s 48%. If McClintock can keep the independent differential near the eleven points found in this poll McClintock will handily win the election.
Charlie Brown’s trying to sell himself as a conservative has been a definitive failure. On the attribution of “conservative” McClintock leads 66% to 9%. On the attribution of “liberal” respondents identified Brown by a margin of 60% to 7%. Regarding the attribution of “winning the war in Iraq” Tom leads 58% to 29%. And on the anti-tax attribution McClintock leads 56% to 18%.
“Voters are focusing on the issues that matter to them and discovering that Charlie Brown lines up with liberal Democrats on issues that are important to voters,” said McClintock for Congress Campaign Strategist John Feliz. “In uncertain economic times voters look for experienced leadership. McClintock is known and respected for his expertise in complex budget issues and understands how to solve problems without resorting to tax increases and massive government bailouts.”
McClintock was recruited by district residents to run for the seat. His conservative values and record of fiscal responsibility match up with the District’s conservative base.
The Republican voter registration advantage is 16 points. Ideologically, the district self-identifies itself as conservative by a 2:1 ratio (60% conservative and 29% liberal). Party loyalty favors Republicans by a difference of 45% to 24%, with a switch vote percentage of 31.
“This poll confirms that our message is being clearly understood by voters,” Feliz said. “This is in stark contrast to other polls that were methodologically questionable. We look forward to debating our opponent and outlining the stark differences between the candidates on the issues.”
Grats on opening up the lead. I am perplexed about the top of the ticket, McCain/Palin, especially the embracing of the bailout bill by McCain. Is there a compelling reason why I should not support Bob Barr?
I still can't get over the fact that McClintock is running in our district. He was the conservative star of the state in the Gov Recall election, now he's going to be our Congressman. Very cool. If our Senators would just resign or fall into quicksand we'd be all set.
I'm very glad that Sen. McClintock is leading a strong campaign. With his adament stance that each school should be best handled by principals rather than a bunch of bureaucrats, the federal government's existance is mainly to protect the liberty and security of the American people (and not intervene in our lives and choices), and taxes should be cut, it is extremely vital that McClintock is elected to Congress to represent the people of the 4th Congressional District. He will bring integrity, reform and conservative values in Congress. Join me in voting for Tom McClintock!