Tom McClintock for Congress

Here is a great summary on where the race stands today, written by Roll Call.

California
House
4th district
Incumbent: John Doolittle (R) is retiring
Outlook: Likely Republican

State Sen. Tom McClintock (R) is well positioned to beat retired Air Force Lt. Col. Charlie Brown (D) and should win comfortably when all is said and done in this solidly conservative Northern California district.

But in a volatile election cycle and with an open seat, it’s too early to put the lid on this race.

Brown ran in 2006 and nearly beat Doolittle despite the strong conservative lean of the district. Brown is campaigning largely on his biography as a career military officer, pledging to work with Democrats and Republicans to get things done for the good of the district.

However, it is notable that Brown’s best tactic is to campaign on his biography rather than his position on key issues, like taxes, abortion and Iraq. Brown would have a better chance in this district if he was a conservative Democrat who opposed abortion rights, was more ardently against taxes and had favored the Iraq War surge.

McClintock is a perfect ideological fit for the 4th district. And even though he represents a state Senate district in Southern California and doesn’t live in the district, he is among the most beloved Republicans in the state.

His name identification in the 4th district is high, courtesy of the several times that he has run for statewide office. Even in losing the 2006 race for lieutenant governor, McClintock won the 4th district, and in doing so, he received far more votes than either Brown or Doolittle.

For all of these reasons, Brown’s attempt to diminish McClintock by labeling him as a carpet-bagging political opportunist is likely to fall short of its objective. It also doesn’t help Brown that McClintock isn’t weighed down by ethical issues, as Doolittle was in 2006.